Solentoya Election 2020

Election Overview & Background
The 2020 Solentoyan General Election was held on 23 January 2020. The Conservative Party, having narrowly failed to secure a majority in the 2015 election had governed for 5 years as a minority with support on a supply and demand basis with the Liberal Party, and the lesser extent the Nationalists.

Gabriel De La Pena had become leader in 2013 after previous party leader and Prime Minister Adaline Harper resigned due to critical health issues, he went on to lead the Conservatives to strong election victory, although falling short of a majority. Being umbrella parties for a spectrum of political leanings, the Conservatives and Liberal Party soon hit into internal issues which eventually left to both parties splintering - an issue the Social Democrats didn't suffer from having worked along side the Peoples Party for decades. 6 Socially Progressive leaning Ministers from the Liberal Party, lead by Lena Fields-Berry (then Minister of Womens Affairs) eventually broke away in early 2016. The Conservatives would carry on for 3 more years, until the then Minister for Work and Pensions, Susana Bebout would split with 7 of her colleagues to form what would become the New Democrats; a more right leaning rival to the centre-right Conservatives.

A new addition to the election cycle, was the formation of alliances - a move by the governing Conservatives to show a facade of strength and that they could continue to govern. Two alliances formed as a result, with the Conservatives, Liberals and newly formed New Democrats forming a centrist Alliance. The Social Democrats, would join with the new splinter party Social Liberals, the Environmentalist and their traditional allies the Peoples Party to form a Red-Progressive alliance.

The election would give the Social Democrats a landslide victory, gaining 76 seats and securing 156 seats overall, 20 short of a majority. With the election system awarding 50 bonus seats, under the previous system the Social Democrats would have secured a majority. However, now that the alliances are in play, the 50 seats are instead divided amongst the alliance members. The reason as to how the environmentalists would gain 14 seats, despite losing a 0.25% of the popular vote.

The New Democrats and Social Liberals, would both fail to match up to the old parties, however both would make gains with the New Democrats falling just under 10% at 8.62% and the Social Liberals at 5.45%. Most notable of this, was in the Beamonte constituency where vote splitting meant the Prime Minister, Gabriel De La Pena only won his seat 869 votes a huge drop from the 11,486 5 years previous. The Liberal Party would see the biggest drop in their votes, which almost halved as voters flipped to the Social Liberals or switched to the Social Democrats. This would translate into a loss of around a third of their seats. Party leader, Emilio Ciampa would promptly resign as party leader and a MP following the result.

Safiyah Aydin became Solentoyas first Prime Minister from the Hae Minority, and the first ethnic non-christian Prime Minister ever. The victory was seen as a huge milestone in Solentoyan history with a feeling of optimism and changing coming in the air, the cabinet positions were quickly divided up among the alliance members with Kayla Harris becoming the Enviroment & Climate Change Secretary, Lena Fields-Berry becoming the Home Secratery and Joel Cueva the Education Minister. Gabriel De La Pena would also quit as party leader, however remain on as a MP in his Beamonte constituency working as a back bencher.

Electoral System
Solentoyas electoral system works on a Mixed Member proportional system. 50% (150) of seats are awarded through a FPTP (First Past the Post) system in single constituencies, while the other 50% (150) are awarded based on the percentage of votes parties won in the list vote within the regions of Solentoya. On top of this a 50 seat bonus is awarded to the alliance winning the list vote. Solentoya also embraced an alliance system for the first time in the 2020 election. Which saw the creation of 2 major alliances that all but 2 minor parties joined - The Red-Progressives and the Centrist Alliance. The Red Progressive made up of the various centre left to left wing parties, and the Centrist Alliance made up of Centre to centre right parties.

Voting Eligibility
Individuals eligible to vote, had to register to do so by December 22nd. In order to be eligible to vote, one has to be over the age of 18 (although the Social Democrats have promised to lower this to 16 as an Alliance promise), a full citizen of Solentoya with an address, a foreign residing Solentoyan who had registered in the last 15 years and must vote via proxy from a Solentoyan address. Citizens may be disqualified from voting if they are currently detained in prison, or for mental health issues or on the run from law enforcement.

Campaign
Both major alliances campaigned heavily on varying opposing views, traditionally, Solentoya had worked with 3 major parties over the past 100 years - the Conservatives, Liberals and Social Democrats. All 3 having provided every Prime Ministers since 1904. As inital polling had suggested, the Social Democrats had once again replaced the Liberals as the second major party.

The Centrist Alliance collaborated on a 'status quo' platform, which relied heavily on persuading people that they had in fact got better off over the past 10 years under a Conservative government and Liberal support. Improving employment figures and a booming economy were both major advantages that was utilised, as despite some of the political turmoil, jobs were secure and people in some sections of society were better off. They also attacked the Red-Progressives for being reckless and radical with their spending plans, citing they'd ruin a flourishing economy. The Red-Progressives conversely campaigned on a widespread 'Help the nation' platform that involved increases in spending on Housing, Education, Welfare, Health, Social Care, Housing & Enviroment among other things - all were major sectors were public spending had been heavily cut over previous years under the Conservative government while supported by the Liberals. They also attacked the government for the widening gap in income equality, the lack of housing and care for local communities; especially those in poorer areas. As well as this, attacking the the two major parties for being unstable and unfit due to the splits and internal struggles they had faced over the previous few years. Climate and Socially progressive issues such as on LGBT rights were also campaigned on to a lesser extent.

Debates
Televised debates were a relatively new addition to the election cycle, first being used in 2010 however since then had gone on to become a regular feature of the election with the 2 major channels Sol TV & IRTVS airing 3 major electoral debates between them for the 2020 election. There was due to be a 4th, however it was cancelled due to major party leaders being unable to agree on a format. The first debate was held on 6th December, and was a Question and answer format in which the 2 major parties of the time (SDP & Conservatives) took questions from audience members for 30 minute period each. The second & third debate, airing on January 3rd & 10th both involved all political parties except the Nationalists & Hae Party and covered a wide selection of campaign issues significant at the time. In the 3rd Debate, Surrogates were pesent for the Social Democrats & Conservatives as well as the Social Liberals - the latter due to illness.

Opinion Polling & Demographic breakdowns
The Chart below depicts results of opinion polling conducted in Solentoya from the 2015 election until the date of the 2020 election. The graph shows, that while the Conservatives had held a steady lead in the run up to the election, the party split and a lackluster campaign had severely eroded public trust and support in their government - making any election pretty much impossible. In the run up to the election the Social Democrats held significant leads in all polling, some polls suggesting leads of up to 15%. In the final days polling did narrow slightly however the Social Democrats still won a convincing victory falling not far short of a majority.

Many polling companies, online pundits and predictors had tried to make their guess at what the outcome of the election would be. While there was some variations in the prediction on the number of seats, especially among smaller parties, by and large the predictions and polling wasn't too far wrong with predicting the outcome of the election.

Following the election the main polling company in Solentoya Graphline suggested the breakdown in voting between age groups and gender which can be seen to the side of the image. Following typical election paths, Male voters were sympathetic to the centre right politics, while females to the centre left. With age splits, the youngest and eldest demographic groups were widely divided in their voting, with the eldest group voting collectively for the Centrist Alliance by just over 60% while the youngest and collectively voted for the Centrist Alliance little over 20%. The bulk of the Environmentalist support come from the youngest age demographics, however due to lower turn out among younger voters this increased share of the vote had little impact come the final result. The higher turn out of the eldest age group meant they could offset the very bad results the Centrist Alliance had with the younger age groups to a certain extent but not enough due the Social Democrats performing resonably well across the board.

Significant Seat Changes
While many MPs lost their seats and there were wide spread changes in Alliegences between some constituency seats that were significant for either being home to a high ranking MP, a previous high ranking MP or for switching for the first time.

Conservatives to Social Democrats


 * Estupenda (First time Social Democrats won)
 * Harthil (Seat of Foreign Minister Carlos Fenty)
 * The Valley (Seat of Ex-Chancellor Teddy Jones)

Conservative to Hae Interest


 * Esvacio (seat of ex-Foreign Minister Luisa Holland)

Conservative to New Democrats


 * Aire (Seat of Ex-Prime Minister Adaline Harper)

Liberal to Social Democrats


 * Sohley-Yarvil (Seat of Liberal Party Whip)

Liberal to Social Liberal


 * Ossa Vaia (Seat of ex party Liberal leader Josef Montgomery)